Even with President Trump saying he’s extending the tenuous Mideast ceasefire, Iran didn’t get the memo. This morning, we learned the IRGC has seized and/or attacked multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Here’s what you can expect: Ongoing conflict will continue to hit the same pressure points — energy, shipping and supply chains. Prices will rise. Volatility will spike. Confidence will crack.

And the economy will likely move in one of two directions: inflation… or deflation.

Investors treat those as opposites. Gold doesn’t.

In the 1970s, when inflation tore through the system, gold surged from $35 to over $800 per ounce. That’s the version everyone knows — gold as the classic inflation hedge.

That’s the straightforward case for gold: protection against a loss of purchasing power and currency instability. We’ve seen it before, and we’re seeing the setup again.

But that’s only half the story.

Because inflation shocks don’t always last. Sometimes they burn out — and leave something potentially worse behind.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, April 22, 2026...

Gold Doesn’t Pick a Side

“Weak demand [is] driven by unemployment, falling asset prices and declining confidence. When people lose jobs or fear they might, they cut back on spending,” says Paradigm’s macro expert Jim Rickards.

“That reduction in demand leads to further job losses, creating a feedback loop that reinforces the downturn.”

That’s the mechanism for deflation. And it’s what can follow when a shock — war, financial stress, policy blunders — shifts from supply disruption to demand destruction.

History is unambiguous about how that plays out.

In the early 1930s, deflation crushed the U.S. economy. Prices fell, debts became unpayable and financial assets deteriorated.

FDR responded by revaluing gold, raising its price 69% in just five months, as part of a deliberate effort to break the deflationary spiral.

As American Enterprise Institute (AEI) economist John H. Makin notes, buying gold in 1931 or 1932 — right into the teeth of deepening deflation — “proved to be a brilliant move.”

The same pattern emerged in 2008. Real GDP contracted, inflation dropped below zero and markets seized. But gold rose anyway from about $700 per ounce in late 2007 to over $1,000 by early 2009.

According to CME Group’s analysis, gold’s surge during that crisis was driven by its status as a safe-haven asset. As stocks and real estate collapsed, investors sought the perceived safety of something that couldn’t be wiped out in a flash.

Deflation doesn’t just lower prices; it raises the real burden of debt. Stocks suffer as the real value of corporate debt rises and the profit outlook deteriorates — while the search for wealth preservation intensifies.

The mistake investors make is thinking they need to pick a side. Inflation or deflation. But both lead to the same destination: stress on financial assets, aggressive policy intervention and a desperate search for something that can't be diluted or defaulted on.

Cue gold.

So as this “ceasefire” clock winds down, gold isn’t betting on inflation or deflation. Either way, gold wins.

Market Rundown for Wednesday, April 22, 2026

S&P 500 futures are up 0.75% to 7,155.

Oil is up 0.20%, just under $90 per barrel.

Gold’s up 1% to $4,770.20 per ounce.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 4% to $78,265