Somewhere in America right now, someone is cleaning out their 401(k) to pay rent. While somebody else is booking a suite in the Maldives on points.

This is the K-shaped economy.

Picture the letter K. The upper arm shoots upward — that’s the “comfortable,” riding a stock market that has logged three consecutive years of double-digit gains (26% in 2023, 24% in 2024, 17% in 2025, per Morningstar).

The lower arm of the K slopes downward — that’s everyone else.

The Vanguard numbers tell the story:

• A record 6% of workers in Vanguard-administered 401(k) plans took a hardship withdrawal in 2025. That’s up from 4.8% the year before — and triple the pre-pandemic norm of 2%.

In five years, emergency retirement raids went from relatively rare to more routine.

In fact, the 401(k) hardship withdrawal rate has climbed for six consecutive years; meaningfully, after Congress loosened the rules in 2018 by eliminating the requirement to take a 401(k) loan first.

The top reasons for doing so? Avoiding eviction and paying off medical expenses.

Your Rundown for Monday, March 9, 2026...

HOW Much Saved for Retirement?!?

The median withdrawal amount was $1,900. That’s not a windfall. That’s a desperate bridge between a crisis and a paycheck.

Meanwhile, on the upper arm of the K, the average 401(k) account balance sat at $168,000 at the end of 2025, up 13% from the end of 2024, driven by strong stock market performance.

Two simultaneous truths in the same data set: record hardship withdrawals and record balances.

But the divergence didn’t start here.

In the U.S., the wealthiest 1% of Americans now control about 32% of all household net worth — a record high, according to Federal Reserve data from the third quarter of 2025.

The bottom 50% of Americans, combined, hold just 2.5%.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, found that in the second quarter of 2025, the top 10% of American earners were responsible for 49% of consumer spending.

Here’s what makes this particularly sinister:

• The median working-age American has saved only $995 for their golden years, according to a 2026 report from the National Institute on Retirement Security.

The upper arm of the K has a financial advisor, compound interest and a diversified portfolio.

The lower arm has a $1,900 withdrawal — and a 10% early-withdrawal penalty for the privilege of surviving the month.

The question isn’t whether you believe in the K-shaped economy. The data has answered that.

The question is which strategies, adjustments and decisions can still move the needle — because for retirees and near-retirees, the margin for error is thin.

That’s exactly what our team at Paradigm is here to figure out, together.

Market Rundown for Monday, March 9, 2026

S&P 500 futures are down almost 1% to 6,675.

Oil’s up another 11.30% to $101.24 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold’s down about 1% to $5,106.40 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 1%, just under $68K.